A Solution of GM(1,1) based on EXCEL

Abstract

The air cargo throughput forecasting can be used by five methods, which are the expert-determined method, analogy method, the trend extrapolation, the econometric methods, and the market analysis.In this paper, a new forecasting method, grey system model is put forward in the case of less information to get high precision of prediction results, and a GM(1,1) model is created about air cargo throughput based on Microsoft Office Excel and VBA Programming for the technology platform. Examples are given to show the model is effective and reasonablewith higher forecasting accuracy and only 0.3% errors, which proves that the solution of GM(1,1) based on EXCEL can reduce the technical requirements for the staff, as EXCEL can be used to solve the problem without much programming background, and staff can also easily  master and utilize GM (1, 1) model.