Global Economic Outlook: Scenario Analysis for 2023 and Tendencies

Abstract

The purpose of this article was to map the most likely scenario for the year 2023, given the economic prospects in the world, and to project tendencies. To this end, a documental analysis was carried out based on studies made available by organizations and institutes specialized in global economic analysis. The applied method was the exploratory and the technical procedure was the bibliographic and descriptive, using a quali-quantitative technique to analyse and qualify the data. To operationalize the research, the material obtained was manipulated for subsequent tabulation and construction of graphics and tables using the Microsoft Excel application. Among the main elements used to identify the economic impacts, we can quote: (i) the COVID-19 pandemic, (ii) the main tendencies of the economy in the post-pandemic world, (iii) the economic policies adopted by countries in combating to the crisis, and (iv) the behaviour of wage dynamics in this context. The results showed that the economic crisis aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic caused a global economic recession, severely affecting the cost of living. In the field of tendencies, there was the expectation of low economic growth and restrictive policies that are causing an increase in interest rates. In the labour market, the outlook is for a low supply of workforce with repercussions on wage dynamics, which should remain below the values practiced before the health crisis. The possible solution will depend on the willingness of the countries to promote cooperation to provide priority assistance to the most vulnerable classes and the ability to stabilize prices, avoiding greater pressure on inflation and interest rates, with a direct impact on wages.