Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between the Development of China's Tourism Industry and Economic Growth Based on VAR Model

Abstract

The relationship between tourism development and economic growth has been a hot topic in the field of tourism economy in recent years, and whether there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between tourism development variables and economic variables (usually GDP) is also a hot topic. By identifying the long-term equilibrium relationship between two variables, we can find the quantitative variation law (generally effect) of one variable with the other. Based on the vector autoregression of the time series data of China's tourism development from 2000 to 2019, it is found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between China's tourism foreign exchange income and domestic tourism gross income and their respective GDP, and the long-term effect is 99% respectively. Through the establishment of the VAR model for the development of China's tourism industry and economic growth, in the long run, they have a balanced relationship of mutual promotion, so as to further guide the development of China's tourism.