Rotavirus diarrhea – An analysis through epidemic modeling

Abstract

Modelling an infectious disease like diarrhea improves the understanding of the transmission and helps in preventing it. Based on the pathogenesis, this research creates a continuous mathematical model for diarrhea (forming an SIRS system) caused by the virus rotavirus. Basic calculations including the basic reproduction number (R0) and disease-free  state are successfully completed for the described system. Results show that if the basic reproduction number is kept below 1 (i.e. R0 < 1), there will be no epidemic. This mathematical model has been simulated using assumed values of parameters to test its fidelity.  In  order  to  establish  the  model  in  a  functioning  form,  the Routh Hurwitz method has been used for the stability  analysis.  Model fidelity has been made stronger by conducting the sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation too. This model is very useful and has been integrated to form utilizable systems which function as a predictive system to assist in prevention of further infections of rotavirus causing diarrhea.