All sites but skin cancer incidences analyzed worldwide by sex, age, and skin type over time (1955-2007), advancing age, and UVB dose reveals important carcinogenic drivers

Dianne E. Godar, Rossen Gurov, Stephen J. Merrill


Because we observed increasing incidences over time, advancing age, higher estrogen levels, decreasing UVB (290-315 nm) doses, or lower vitamin D3, and Human Papillomavirus hiding in immune-privileged sites of hair follicles play roles in melanoma, we wondered if the majority of cancers might have similar carcinogenic drivers. To investigate this possibility, we performed worldwide analysis of all sites but skin cancer over time (1955-2007), advancing age, and UVB doses for males and females with all skin types and ages (0-85+) and in five age groups using IARC data. To investigate Human Papillomavirus’s role, we analyzed the incidences of breast, prostate, and colon cancers in a developed country with European ancestry (New Zealand) having high amounts of androgenic hair and a developing country with Asian ancestry (India) having low amounts of androgenic hair. To potentially add epidemiology to the already established role of estrogen in cancer, we analyzed males and females in various countries around the world using the incidence of breast cancer (> 70 yr.) as an established indicator of estrogen levels. The analysis reveals cancer incidences are steadily increasing over time in developed but not developing countries regardless of skin type. Only US white, but not black, breast, prostate, and colon cancer incidences in the oldest age group significantly decreased with increasing UVB dose suggesting a role for vitamin D3. The data suggests the carcinogenic drivers in many cancers are estrogen, increasing age (or reactive oxygen species), decreasing vitamin D3 levels, and persistence of Human Papillomavirus infection in immune-privileged sites.

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Journal of Epidemiological Research

ISSN 2377-9306(Print)  ISSN 2377-9330(Online)

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