Applying the ARIMA Model to the Process of Forecasting GDP and CPI in the Jordanian Economy

Abstract

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and consumer price index (CPI) are significant indicators to describe and evaluate economic activity and levels of development. They are also often used by decision makers so as to plan economic policy. This paper aims at modeling and predicting GDP and CPI in Jordan. In order to achieve this goal, the study applied the Box- Jenkins (JB) methodology for the period 1976-2019. Based on the results, ARIMA (3,1,1) found to be the best model for the GDP. In addition, ARIMA (1,1,0) was the best model for forecasting the CPI. The results were supported with the findings of the stationarity and identification rules test of time series under using AIC and SIC criterion. The forecasted values of the GDP and the CPI for the next three years (2020-2022) were (29342.12, 32095.10, 35106.36 million JD) and (128.31, 133.28, 139.28) respectively. Compared with 2019, the GDP is forecasted to decrease in 2020, while the CPI is forecasted to increase in 2020. This implies that the Jordanian economy is tending toward stagflation. After 2020, both GDP and CPI increased, which indicates that Jordanian economy is tending toward cost-push inflation.