Examining the Effect of Automatic Promotion on Students’ Learning Achievements in Uganda’s Primary Education

Abstract

This study employed a difference-in-differences analysis technique to estimate the average treatment effect ofautomatic promotion on students’ cognitive learning outcomes in Uganda’s primary education. Regression resultsindicate a positive policy effect on learning achievements in literacy and numeracy at primary three (P3) and primarysix (P6). Specifically, the implementation of automatic promotion policy has translated in to an increase in learningoutcomes in reading and mathematics at P3 and P6, all statistically significant at conventional levels. Decomposingthe effect along gender and school location (rural or urban) dimensions reveals positive and statistically significanteffect on literacy and numeracy in both grades. The effect on students’ scores in rural areas is higher than that onstudents’ in urban schools. In terms of gender, the effect is relatively similar for female students and their malecounterparts. These results are contrary to the popular belief among many Ugandans, but consistent with earlierscholarly works that have attributed automatic promotion with positive impact on learning outcomes.