The Master’s Degree Boom: How Universities Expanded Supply as Employers Reduced Demand

Abstract

This article examines the growing disconnect between master’s degree production and employer demand in the United States. Using IPEDS Completions Survey data on degree conferrals (2010–2022) and LinkedIn profile data (N=10,247,832) as a demand-side indicator, the analysis reveals a supply-demand mismatch: master’s degree production grew 27.0% (706,304 to 897,161), yet the master’s degree “drawbridge gap” is -6.0 percentage points (95% CI [-6.7, -5.3]), indicating that recent occupational entrants hold master’s degrees at lower rates than incumbents. The decline is sharpest in fields targeted by new programs, including data science (-20.9pp), marketing (-11.2pp), and software engineering (-9.8pp). Drawing on theories of academic capitalism, credential inflation, and institutional isomorphism, the article argues that this mismatch is driven by institutional revenue incentives, mimetic program expansion, information asymmetry, and moral hazard. The article concludes with policy recommendations for outcome transparency, institutional risk-sharing, and consumer protection in graduate education.